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Energy Profile: Coal Reserve Depletion

Using BP's statistical review for 2004, the charts below represent the rate of depletion of existing reserves if no new sources for coal are found. They are show into the rate of depletion by continent and the rate for the major producers that represent an 88% of the world's total reserves.

Constant 2003 Level of Production

First case assumptions:

• Reserves remain constant, no new sources of coal are found within the producer country

• Production levels remain constant, never changing to levels above or below 2003's production for the producer country

This scenario shows the rate of depletion for each country independently if no new reserves are added to known reserves and present production levels are maintained. After 100 years 47% of the world's present coal reserves would remain and 47% of the major producers' present coal reserves would remain, with only China becoming completely depleted.

This scenario shows when each country/continent would independantly run out of coal if no new reserves are added to known reserves as production levels grow 1.95% to meet demand. Individual continents are depleted in 100 years, with Europe and North America as the last significant producers with reserves. The world's major producers effectively run out of reserves in 100 years, except for Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan which individually have reserves past 2003.

 

 

Growth + Depletion Adjusted Level of Production

Fourth case assumptions:

• Reserves remain constant, no new sources of coal are found within the producer country

• Production levels increase 1.95% per year for each country starting from 2003 levels, AND...

• As a producing country runs out of reserves its production is evenly distributed amongst the remaining countries with reserves, adding to their own production levels

This scenario shows when each country/continent would become depleted if no new reserves are added to known reserves, production levels grow 1.95% each year AND each country was forced to pick up its production to make-up for the loss of production from depleted countries. Individual continents are depleted by 2085, with Europe and North America again as the last significant producers with reserves. The world's major producers run out of reserves by 2090, with for Russia and the US as the last significant producers with reserves.