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Energy Profile: Petroleum Reserve Depletion 2

Using BP's statistical review for 2004, the charts below represent the rate of depletion of existing reserves for oil and gas if no new sources for petroleum are found. This second petroleum depletion case simply adds oil and gas reserves and oil and gas production into combined barrel equivalent numbers, treating them as if they were the same in terms of removing them from the ground. When gas or oil within the countries is depleted, production continues as if there were no change in the reserve. The regions are seperated into the rate of depletion for OPEC, which represents 64% of currently known reserves, and the rate for other major producers, which represent an additional 28% of the world's reserves.

Constant 2003 Level of Production

First case assumptions:

  • Reserves remain constant, no new sources of petroleum are found within the producer country

  • Production levels remain constant, never changing to levels above or below 2003's production for the producer country

  • Iraq is not included but only uses oil production numbers

    This scenario shows when each country would independantly run out of petroleum if no new oil and gas reserves are added to known reserves and present combined oil and gas production levels are maintained. OPEC still has reserves after 100 years, with Iran and Qatar holding the bulk. The world's other major producers run out of reserves in 2056, with Russia's reserves the last to be completely depleted by 25 years.

 

 

Depletion Adjusted Level of Production

Second case assumptions:

  • Reserves remain constant, no new sources of petroleum are found within the producer country

  • Production levels remain constant for individual countries, AND...

  • As a producing country runs out of reserves its production is evenly distributed amongst the remaining countries with reserves, adding to their own production levels. This is done independently for oil and gas.

    This scenario shows when each country would become depleted if no new reserves are added to known reserves AND each country was forced to pick up its production to make-up for the loss of production from depleted countries. OPEC runs out of reserves in 2055, with Iran and Qatar's reserves again the last to be completely depleted. The world's other major producers run out of reserves in 2047, with Russia's reserves the last to be completely depleted, again by 25 years.

 

 

1.95% Growth Adjusted Level of Production
Third case assumptions:
  • Reserves remain constant, no new sources of petroleum are found within the producer country

  • Production levels increase 1.95% per year for each country starting from 2003 levels. This is done independently for oil and gas.

  • Iraq is not included but only uses oil production numbers

    This scenario shows when each country would independantly run out of petroleum if no new reserves are added to known reserves as production levels grow 1.95% to meet demand. OPEC still has reserves in 2104, but only in Qatar. The world's other major producers run out of reserves in 2039, with Russia's reserves the last to be completely depleted.

 

 

Growth + Depletion Adjusted Level of Production

Fourth case assumptions:
  • Reserves remain constant, no new sources of petroleum are found within the producer country

  • Production levels increase 1.95% per year for each country starting from 2003 levels, AND...

  • As a producing country runs out of reserves its production is evenly distributed amongst the remaining countries with reserves, adding to their own production levels

This scenario shows when each country would become depleted if no new reserves are added to known reserves, production levels grow 1.95% each year AND each country was forced to pick up its production to make-up for the loss of production from depleted countries. OPEC runs out of reserves in 2047, again with Iran and Qatar's reserves the last to be completely depleted. The world's other major producers run out of reserves in 2036, with Russia's reserves the last to be completely depleted.

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