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Energy Profile: Reserve Depletion

Using BP's statistical review for 2004, the charts below represent the rate of depletion of existing reserves if no new sources for oil are found. They are seperated into the rate of depletion for OPEC, which represents 77% of currently known reserves, and the rate for other major producers, which represent an additional 16% of the world's reserves.

Constant 2003 Level of Production

First case assumptions:

• Reserves remain constant, no new sources of oil are found within the producer country

• Production levels remain constant, never changing to levels above or below 2003's production for the producer country

  This scenario shows when each country would independantly run out of oil if no new reserves are added to known reserves and present production levels are maintained. OPEC still has reserves after 100 years, but only in Iraq, Kuwait and Iran. The world's other major producers run out of reserves in 2025, with Russia's reserves the last to be completely depleted.

 

 

Depletion Adjusted Level of Production

Second case assumptions:

• Reserves remain constant, no new sources of oil are found within the producer country

• Production levels remain constant for individual countries, AND...

• As a producing country runs out of reserves its production is evenly distributed amongst the remaining countries with reserves, adding to their own production levels

This scenario shows when each country would become depleted if no new reserves are added to known reserves AND each country was forced to pick up its production to make-up for the loss of production from depleted countries. OPEC runs out of reserves in 2046, with Iraq and Saudi Arabia's reserves the last to be completely depleted. The world's other major producers run out of reserves in 2022, with Russia's reserves the last to be completely depleted.

This scenario shows when each country would independantly run out of oil if no new reserves are added to known reserves as production levels grow 1.95% to meet demand. OPEC runs out of reserves in 2091, with Iraq's reserves the last to be completely depleted. The world's other major producers run out of reserves in 2021, with Russia's reserves the last to be completely depleted.

.

 

Growth + Depletion Adjusted Level of Production

Fourth case assumptions:

• Reserves remain constant, no new sources of oil are found within the producer country

• Production levels increase 1.95% per year for each country starting from 2003 levels, AND...

• As a producing country runs out of reserves its production is evenly distributed amongst the remaining countries with reserves, adding to their own production levels

This scenario shows when each country would become depleted if no new reserves are added to known reserves, production levels grow 1.95% each year AND each country was forced to pick up its production to make-up for the loss of production from depleted countries. OPEC runs out of reserves in 2020, with Saudi Arabia's reserves the last to be completely depleted. The world's other major producers run out of reserves in 2013, with Russia's reserves the last to be completely depleted.

.